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INSIGHTS WITH JOHN LOOS

FNB ECONOMIST

Retail Property Fundamentals– For consumers, higher indebtedness, weak interest income, and higher taxation offsets much of the benefit that interest rate reduction and low interest rate levels used to bring.
Aggressive Interest rate cutting doesn’t bring the same stimulus to consumer spending growth as it used to. Higher indebtedness these days, and low income on deposits, sees to that.
February 2022 hotel revenues – still-strong year-on-year growth off a low 2020/early-2021 base, but still far weaker than pre-lockdown levels.
The StatsSA release of February 2022 preliminary monthly tourism statistics show the Hotel Sector to be really battling to fully recover from the harsh Covid-19-related lockdown shock back in 2020. This is despite year-on-year growth appearing to be impressive.
1st Quarter FNB Broker Survey sees brokers as a group pointing towards declining vacancy rates in all 3 commercial property markets.
The FNB Commercial Property Broker Survey surveys a sample of commercial property brokers in and around the 6 major metros of South Africa, namely, City of Joburg and Ekurhuleni (Greater Johannesburg), Tshwane, eThekwini, City of Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay.
Property Insights – FNB Commercial Property Broker Survey – 1st Quarter 2022 broker near term sales activity expectations strengthen noticeably in all 3 Commercial Property classes.
The FNB Commercial Property Broker Survey surveys a sample of commercial property brokers in and around the 6 major metros of South Africa, namely, City of Joburg and Ekurhuleni (Greater Johannesburg), Tshwane, eThekwini, City of Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay.
New Mortgage Lending data for the final quarter of 2021 showed mild year-on-year decline in the value of new mortgage loans granted, as a lack of new interest rate stimulus began to have an influence.
4th Quarter 2021 SARB New Mortgage Lending data, released in the March 2022 SARB Quarterly Bulletin, confirmed the sharp deceleration in growth from 2 quarters prior, and the onset of mild year-on-year decline in the value of new mortgage loans granted.
Property Broker Survey –Market Balance Q1 2022 – Brokers perceive that oversupplies in the 3 major commercial property buying/selling markets have been diminishing, with the Industrial Market possibly reaching demand-supply balance.
We continue with the 1st quarter 2022 results of our FNB Commercial Property Broker Survey, which surveys a sample of commercial property brokers in and around the 6 major metros of South Africa, namely, City of Joburg and Ekurhuleni (Greater Johannesburg), Tshwane, eThekwini, City of Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay
March SARB Interest Rate Decision and the Main Implications for Property.
SARB hikes rates for the 3rd time in the cycle. While rate hiking is usually a “dampening” force on property, the Commercial Property Market’s strengthening in sales activity may have some “legs” before peaking later this year, despite the March rate hike. The Residential Rental Market could receive some mild support.
Property Insights – 1st Quarter 2022 FNB Property Broker Survey – Commercial Property Broker Survey Respondents continue to perceive steadily easing levels of financial pressure.
In this note, we continue with the 1st quarter 2022 results of our FNB Commercial Property Broker Survey, which surveys a sample of commercial property brokers in the 6 major metros of South Africa, i.e., City of Joburg and Ekurhuleni (Greater Johannesburg), Tshwane, eThekwini, City of Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay.
January 2022 Hotel Accommodation Income Statistics show strong growth off a very low base, but indicate that tough times continued early in the new year, with the Hotel Property Sector still battling to fully recover from the 2020 lockdown “dip”.
The StatsSA release of January 2022 preliminary monthly tourism statistics show the Hotel Sector to be make very slow progress in climbing back out of big dip created by Covid-19-related lockdowns and the accompanying recessionary impact back in 2020. This is despite seemingly impressive year-on-year growth rates.